Optimal estimators and asymptotic variances for nonequilibrium path-ensemble averages

David D. D. L. Minh and John D. Chodera.
J. Chem. Phys. 131:134110, 2009. [DOI] [PDF]

We derive an optimal estimator and corresponding statistical uncertainties for inferring expectations of bidirectional nonequilibrium processes.  These estimators have widespread applicability in single-molecule biophysical force-spectroscopy experiments and nonequilibrium molecular simulations.